James Shaw says the Greens hit rock bottom in last night’s shock poll but he thinks they can climb out of the hole they are in.
The 1 News Colmar Brunton poll gave the Greens just 4%. On that result it would be out of Parliament on September 23.
Mr Shaw, the party’s only leader since Metiria Turei quit, says it was not a big surprise.
“We knew we were going to have a string of bad polls because of the messiness of the last couple of weeks and what everyone is calling the ‘Jacinda effect’.”
Mr Shaw said other polls have shown the Greens are trending down.
“But I think we’re at our lowest point, this is rock bottom for us, I think we’ll get back to our historical level of 10% or 11%.”
The poll gave Labour a huge boost to 37%, backing two other surveys last week that put the party on 33% and 36% since Jacinda Ardern became leader.
All three showed National losing a few points and the 1 News poll gave it 44%, its lowest level in four years.
As votes shift around on the centre-left, the big picture has not changed and New Zealand First would still hold the balance of power after the election.
The poll also has Prime Minister Bill English neck and neck with Ms Ardern in the preferred prime minister stakes.
The poll shows them both on 30%, well ahead of any other politician.
NZ First is down one point to 10%, but would still decide the outcome of the election.
It is the Greens leaving Parliament that would be the game changer. On less than 5%, its votes would be shared among the other parties with National picking up more than any of the others.
That would mean National holding 57 seats in a 122-member parliament.
With its current partners it would have 61 seats, still just short, and would need NZ First for a majority.
Labour would have 49 seats, and with NZ First’s 12 seats added it would be short of a majority.
However, if United Future leader Peter Dunne lost Ohariu the number of seats in parliament would fall and Labour would just be able to form a government with NZ First.
The poll was conducted over the last five days. The poll usually questions 1000 voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2%. NZN